Strategic Analysis Evolution: scenario planning and simulation based on the methodology of System Dynamics

The present study is aimed at developing the optimal instruments for dispelling the uncertainty factors during the formulation of strategies for corporate development. The objective is the creation of a complete model of strategic analysis, which encompasses both the environment (internal and external) and the management rational component. This model – built on the analysis of three corporate cases-is concretized by a simulation for testing the strategy by the means of software which enables the users to cope with a dynamic and complex corporate environment. The research questions regard the development of a complete strategic analysis, which covers the entire decision-making process; the concrete assessment of the business strategy on the basis of quantitative data; the identification and enhancement of the critical variables of business administration, in such a complex and dynamic reality as the corporate environment. Introduction The present study originates from the consideration that strategic analysis tends to focus on the internal corporate environment (Resource-Scenario Planning), but partly it overlooks the investigation of the human component and corresponding rationality, neglecting their introduction in a In the business context, decisional power is handed by the company's management. The management, indeed, takes strategic decisions regarding uncertain and complicated situations. Yet, despite a thorough environmental knowledge, it is very difficult to take optimal decisions. As it happened in the last few years, market trends are very unpredictable and this limits the validity of strategies based on the sole competitive scene. Ever since, strategic analyses have been partially ignoring the study of the